Beyond the Box Score
For Games Wednesday October 9th 2024
Throughout the season, I’ll periodically dive into stories and trends that go beyond just who scored and who didn’t from the night before. I’ll focus on the underlying numbers behind each player's performance, aiming to spot trends in ice time, deployment and opportunity before they become obvious to the rest of your league. By staying ahead of these shifts, you'll have a strategic advantage as these trends emerge.
The Leafs Will Be Ok
Let’s not panic over one result even if it’s on opening night. The Leafs controlled the game pretty much throughout. Even if you score and venue adjust the shot numbers, Toronto had their way. Montreal isn’t going to be able to strangle a 1-0 lead every night, this isn’t 1993.
The Matthews line was particularly dominant with a 73% shot share and 6 rush attempts throughout the game. They didn’t surrender a high danger chance against even when chasing the game. They also led their opponents in scoring chances 18-5. This line is too talented for the goals not to come. We all know this, so relax a little.
Suzuki Line Caved In
On the other hand, the Suzuki line got completely caved in. I’m not sure why they logged so many minutes against the Leafs' top line. Maybe the strategy was to play for counter-attacking opportunities, but when Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield were on the ice, they got out-attempted 29-7, mostly by Toronto’s big guns. This is definitely something to keep an eye on going forward. Last season, this line hovered around a 50% shot share, but with Slafkovsky's rise on the wing, you'd expect it to improve. Watch their deployment and the numbers closely. Oh, and while we’re at it—no, I don’t expect Sam Montembeault to be a Vezina candidate anytime soon. Nice game my guy!
Pens Line Blender
Pittsburgh’s lines were already in a blender on opening night. They were chasing the game all night too after going down 3-0 at the end of the first period; but the Pens rolled five different lines for at least four minutes a piece. The line of McGroarty-Eller-Puljujarvi showed well in shot share but they were sheltered in their deployment. The O’Connor-Malkin-Bunting line was particularly bad getting out chanced 13-1. Pittsburgh plays again tonight in Detroit, so they are going to have to find something that works quickly.
Chytil SZN?
Full disclosure: the Czech trio of Necas, Chytil, and Zadina was one of my favorite prospect groups a few years back. I had high hopes for all of them to turn into legitimate NHL stars. Well, it looks like Necas has made it, Zadina hasn’t, and the jury is still out on Chytil. It’s no secret the Rangers have solid center depth, even if they aren’t the same 5-on-5 powerhouse they used to be. This depth allows them to play Filip Chytil as their third-line center, which is a luxury.
Last night, Chytil was paired with Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko. Chytil led the Rangers in shot share last season at over 58%, though his season was limited to just 10 games. Last night, that line controlled 55% of the shot share and more impressively, out-chanced Pittsburgh 16-6. They were creating dangerous opportunities all night. If this line can contribute at even strength, the Rangers are going to be a tough team to beat again this season.
Just Leave Ehlers on the Top-Power Play
I’ve already alluded to my affinity for Nikolaj Ehlers, obut one of the two points of contention I’ve ever had with him as a fantasy asset is his exposure to the Jets top power-play unit. Last year it seemed to be an on-again—off-again relationship for much of the season. Winnipeg got three power-play opportunities last night and the first unit of Scheifele-Ehlers-Connor-Vilardi-Morrissey scored two goals. Ehlers scored just eight power-play points all last season, getting one on opening night this year is a promising sign of what could be. He’s already 28, past the “prime” age for hockey forwards, but could we see Ehlers close in on the point-per-game mark?
Draisaitl Line on D-Zone Draws
Believe it or not, Draisaitl led Oilers forwards in d-zone draws last season. With the newly constructed line of Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson, I expected some of that pressure to dissipate but that wasn’t the case at least on opening night as Draisaitl once again let all Oilers in d-zone draws with 6.
Avs Second Line Absent
I wrote on Monday about how the Avs really need to see something from their depth lines if they again want to contend for the Stanley Cup. Last night wasn’t a good omen. Colorado’s second line was out chanced 6-2
Time For Wolf
I'm not going to dive into Arturs Silovs' equally rough night, but let's focus on Dan Vladar. His career numbers—an 89.2% save percentage and 3.12 GAA—don’t suggest he’s NHL starting-caliber. Behind him, though, you’ve got a 23-year-old phenom who's been stellar at every level of development. He’s won junior gold, was named CHL Goaltender of the Year, twice WHL Goaltender of the Year, and most recently, he was AHL Goaltender of the Year twice and even took home the league MVP once.
At every stage, all this guy has done is produce. Sure, goalies can take longer to mature, but at 23, he's not a kid anymore. Calgary doesn’t look particularly strong this season, and while I’m not privy to the internal discussions in the organization, if I value Dustin Wolf as the future of my franchise, I’d play him for 50 games this season and ride out the ups and downs. Throwing Vladar out on opening night, only to watch him get pumped for five goals, isn't doing anyone any favors. Let Wolf get his reps and grow into the role—Calgary has little to lose by investing in his development now.