Buy or Sell?
Okay, we're back! I had a little hiccup earlier this week with accessing some of the sites I use for data at work, but everything's sorted out now. With most teams having played around 6-8 games, we’re at a point where we can start making some assessments, especially on some of the deeper players in our lineups. I’ll be focusing on a few forwards who had an ADP between 100-200 on FanTrax (the only platform I use). Who should we be buying? Who should we be selling? I’ll be referring primarily to limited keeper or dynasty leagues; and looking at guy who aren’t obvious plays on shooting benders. Let’s dive in.
Viktor Arvidsson (SELL)
Arvidsson’s play-driving metrics are still solid—he's over 58% CF and is skating alongside Leon Draisaitl and Jeff Skinner at even strength. However, the lack of power-play time is a major red flag. He’s not breaking into the Oilers' top unit and has logged just 6:40 of power-play time through seven games. Even in his prime with Nashville, Arvidsson was always a volume shooter, but his current iCF/60 is just 12.73, well below his previous career low of 16.4. It’s possible that injuries have taken a toll on him, making him a sell or drop candidate for me. *It looks like he may be getting a little on the top power-play if you trust practice groupings. Monitor this situation if you are an Arvidsson holder.*
Lucas Raymond (BUY)
I’m not worried about Raymond. Yes, the Red Wings have had a slow start, and questions remain about the Yzerplan, but Lucas Raymond isn’t the issue. His individual rate stats are as good or better than last year, including expected goals, shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Plus, his power-play ice time has climbed above 3:00 per game. The points will come. If there’s an antsy Raymond owner in your league, kick the tires and see what happens. I’d expect some positive regression here.
Jake DeBrusk (SELL)
DeBrusk was a popular draft pick this season, with the expectation that he’d play alongside Pettersson and Boeser and potentially secure a spot on the Canucks' top power-play unit, setting him up for a career year. But after six games, the results have been disappointing—he has four points, all assists, and all secondary.
His underlying stats are down significantly. At even strength, he’s posting 3.27 shots/60, whereas he’s never had a season below 8.3. His ixG/60 sits at 0.21, a far cry from his previous worst of 0.73. His iCF has been cut in half. There’s currently no indication that things will turn around. DeBrusk is already in an ideal situation on the ice, but the production and underlying numbers just aren’t there. His teams 5v5 on ice shooting percentage is 9.4, which is totally normal. If you can find a taker, I’d recommend moving on from him.
Owen Tippett (BUY)
Like Detroit, Philly has also stumbled out of the gate with just three points in their first seven games. Owen Tippett is playing mostly with Michkov and Frost at even strength. He gets all the fun minutes on the first power-play unit. His iCF is up but the shots are down just slightly from last year. The high danger chances aren’t there like they were last season, but for me Tippett is such a volume driven player that it will eventually come around for him. Philly can’t really be this anemic on offense all season long. Considering his situation hasn’t changed for the worse from last year, I don’t think there are any worries here. He’s firing the puck like always—the results just haven’t been there on the score sheet. The 2.9% 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage will come around.
With the first two weeks of the season behind us, it’s the perfect time to evaluate some of the players on our rosters and make strategic moves. While it's too early to make sweeping judgments, the underlying stats give us valuable insights into which players are trending in the right direction and which may be falling short of expectations.
Players like Lucas Raymond and Owen Tippett have solid roles and promising metrics, suggesting that better days are ahead for both, making them strong buy candidates. Meanwhile, Viktor Arvidsson and Jake DeBrusk are players whose early struggles and concerning underlying numbers make them potential sell candidates before their stock dies. As always, keeping an eye on changes in deployment, power-play opportunities, and overall team dynamics will be crucial as you navigate through the season.