Five Shooting Heaters That Can't Possibly Continue
Proceed With Caution
I’m old enough to remember when the Boston Bruins threw a bunch of money at Matt Beleskey because of a one-off shooting streak in a contract year. GM Don Sweeney gave him a 5-year deal worth around $4.7 million in today’s cap dollars, based on a single 20+ goal season. After Beleskey signed with Boston at age 27, he went on to score just 19 more goals in his career.
I’d like to think real NHL GMs have gotten smarter since then, but then again, there’s Darnell Nurse and his contract; sorry Oilers fans. Although there have been some improvements in contract processes in the league from both GMs and players, that doesn’t mean fantasy GMs won’t be drawn to shooting streaks. Just recently, I saw Mark Kastelic atop the FanTrax list for the greatest increase in ownership percentages.
Each of the last two seasons, 18-20 players have finished with an all-strengths goals total that is 10 or more goals above their expected total. Some of this can likely be attributed to factors that public models don’t capture, as well as genuine differences in shooting talent; or just a lucky streak that manifested the entire season. The only three players to make the list in both the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons are Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, and Brayden Point. Auston Matthews’ 24.39 goals above expected last season was the clear outlier across both years.
For this exercise, I reviewed each player’s expected goals differential per shot and compared it to even the most extreme performances from the last two seasons. Narrowing it down further to players who finished with a +15 actual goals scored over expected goals scored, we get 13 individual instances from the last two years.
Auston Matthews (23-24) +24.39 Goals +6.6% Shooting
Jared McCann (22-23) +21.91 Goals +10.4% Shooting
Artemi Panarin (23-24) +20.91 Goals +6.8% Shooting
David Pastrnak (22-23) +20.83 Goals +5.1% Shooting
Leon Draisaitl (22-23) +20.05 Goals +8.1% Shooting
Connor McDavid (22-23) +20.03 Goals +5.7% Shooting
Mikko Rantanen (22-23) +18.98 Goals +6.2% Shooting
Sam Reinhart (23-24) +17.84 Goals +7.7% Shooting
Andrei Kuzmenko (22-23 ) +17.08 Goals +11.9% Shooting
Adrian Kempe (22-23) +17.08 Goals +6.8% Shooting
Tage Thompson (22-23) +16.65 Goals +5.6% Shooting
Nathan MacKinnon (23-24) +16.8 Goals +4.4% Shooting
Brayden Point (22-23) +15.28 Goals +6.5% Shooting
Listed above are each player’s total number of goals scored above expected and their realized shooting percentage over expected. For example, each of Auston Matthews' shots from last season scored at a rate 6.6% higher than expected. The most unsustainable numbers came from players with the lowest shot totals, including Andrei Kuzmenko (143), Jared McCann (210), Sam Reinhart (233) and Leon Draisaitl (247).
Each team in the league has played between 8-12 games to date, so we are already about 10%-15% of the way through the season, even though the calendar has not yet turned to November. Several players are riding shooting streaks that are wholly unsustainable. Here are five shooting benders that cannot possibly continue.
Cole Caufield (MTL)
Caufield sits atop the NHL goal-scoring charts, tied at nine goals with New Jersey’s Nico Hischier. His expected goal total is just 3.61, putting him 5.39 goals above expected in only nine games. Looking at the standard numbers, everyone knows he won’t maintain a 30% shooting rate all season. A season average in the high teens is probably much more realistic by the end.
I warned about Nick Suzuki the other day, and since these two play together so frequently, it’s expected that Caufield would also appear on a list of regression candidates. I think Caufield has talent and is a genuine goal scorer, and even Habs fans should be grateful for a goal total close to 40 by season’s end. Even that would surpass his career high by 12 goals.
Kyle Connor (WPG)
I have Jets fans in my timeline who’ve been through the Kyle Connor / Nikolaj Ehlers wars. Connor has eight goals on 36 shots good for a 22.2% shooting percentage. Connor’s 4.94 goals above expected is second only to Caufield. His realized chance of scoring on each shot is 13.7% higher than expected so far, surpassing even Andrei Kuzmenko’s mark above.
Connor is also a volume shooter, which makes this 13.7% mark even more remarkable. Even if he can continue something resembling this heater throughout the course of the season we should expect that number to come down to about 7-8% in our most optimistic forecasts.
Sam Bennett (FLA)
See the chart below: Sam Bennett has never been particularly adept in shooting talent, with a few seasons where his actual goal total fell below his expected goal total. This season, Bennett has scored 8 goals on 38 shots with an expected goals mark of 3.94, placing him 4.06 goals above expected. He’s currently scoring at a rate 10.7% higher than expected. His career high was 28 goals in the 2021-22 season with Florida.
Unlike players such as Connor or Caufield, Bennett doesn’t have the same shot volume, so his numbers could theoretically stay around that 10.7% mark for the full season. On rare occasions, this can happen; however, whether it’s next week, next month, or a few months from now, Bennett's shooting percentage will likely return to a more typical rate.
Claude Giroux (OTT)
Next up is Claude Giroux. While it may not be intentional, the 36-year-old Giroux is playing in a contract year — potentially his last NHL contract. Giroux has scored five goals on just 18 shots, sitting 3.53 goals above his expected mark of 1.47 goals. He's scoring at a rate 19.6% higher than expected, the highest rate in the league among players with a goal total at least 3.5 above their expected tally. Giroux has consistently demonstrated the ability to score above his expected goal rates throughout his career, but the extreme differential we're seeing from him now just won’t endure indefinitely.
Matt Duchene (DAL)
Lastly, let’s include Matt Duchene, who has six goals on 15 shots, shooting an impressive 40%. He is 2.87 goals above expected, with a clip 19.1% higher than expected. Aside from one rough year in Colorado and his first year in Nashville, Duchene, like Giroux, has shown he can shoot above his expected marks over a full season. However, as he’s gotten older, his expected goals per shot have continued to decline, as indicated by the red line below. This is likely a consequence of a decline in his speed with age. Duchene is a great player with a long and distinguished career, but his effectiveness as a fantasy player is deceptive, especially if his low shot totals continue. His shooting percentage is expected to come down drastically in short order.
