Matty Ice?
Playing for Futures
Playing in Toronto always puts the spotlight on players, even in fantasy hockey, because of the leaf on the front of their jersey. It looks like we are witnessing a breakout season for the 22-year-old winger, but are we too late on Matthew Knies?
Knies played his first full season in Toronto last year after competing collegiately at the University of Minnesota. Largely overlooked in most prospect circles during his draft year, Knies was selected 57th overall by the Leafs in the 2012 entry draft. EP Rinkside, my go-to prospect site, summarized him like this when they ranked him 66th:
Matthew Knies will likely go higher than this ranking, and that won’t necessarily be a bad thing for whichever team makes that investment. Blending skill with a grinder’s mentality, he plays a near-pro-ready game.
At the time, he was seen as a player with a safe projection—not expected to score a ton but capable of being a solid pro, contributing in different phases of the game, and playing well alongside skilled players.
The Leafs certainly needed some affordable internal replacements after committing hefty contracts to their big four: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares. When Zach Hyman left Toronto for Edmonton, Knies was handed a golden ticket.
As a rookie Knies totaled 15 goals and 20 assists, and chipped in four more points in the Leafs first round playoff series. Knies played 563 even strength minutes with Matthews and 429 minutes without him. Knies was not as effective of a player without Matthews on the ice, but I’m not sure if that says more to the strength of Matthews than it does to any perceived weakness of Knies. Tavares and Knies were more productive in a shot share sense playing apart than they were together, so that combination wasn’t great, and if you went any further down the Leafs lineup than that you were just trying to stay above water.
Nevertheless, Knies was probably an easy pick-up, even on the waiver wire before the 23-24 season. As camps opened and Knies got a look alongside Matthews, he became a must-roster player—if only to see what he could do and grab some cheap points on days you could get him in the lineup.
Now, in his second season, I’m having serious regrets in the leagues where I don’t have him rostered. The Knies-Matthews-Marner line is currently playing at the fastest pace in the league, clocking in at around 90 CF/60. For comparison, the highest-paced forwards last year were in the high 70s, including names like Nathan MacKinnon, Matthew Tkachuk, Connor McDavid’s line, and a mix of Carolina’s top-six forwards.
The production for Knies is starting to materialize. He has four points in his first seven games, including three goals. All the supporting metrics are trending positively. Now is the time to get in on him before it’s too late. His shots/60 have increased to 9.5 from 6.2, and his ixG/60 has jumped to 1.26 from 0.72. His individual scoring chances and high-danger shots have all doubled compared to last season.
Here are his ranks among the 381 forwards who’ve played more than 40 minutes of 5v5 ice time this season:
iXG/60 - 31st
Shots/60 - 54th
iCF/60 - 59th
iHDCF/60 - 4th
The only thing holding him back from pushing his point totals even higher is a spot on the Leafs’ first power-play unit. With John Tavares being a pending UFA, that equation could change. While I’d assume the Leafs want to bring Tavares back, it all depends on the number. Knies himself will be an RFA at the end of the year, raising questions about what kind of contract he’ll be looking at. If I’m the Leafs, I risk losing Tavares before losing Knies, even considering their depth at center.
I should qualify all of this by saying I don’t think Knies will ever be a point-per-game player, but he’s perfectly suited for his role, and I could see him becoming a consistent 65-point player. He already contributes hits, and if he continues shooting the puck at over 2.5 shots per game, he could become a tremendous multi-category player. If you’re in any kind of dynasty setting, check in with the Knies owner—he could pay huge dividends in the near future.