Early Goalie Thoughts
When to Hold--When to Fold
Anaheim
Lukas Dostal has been on prospect radars for several years, though early results haven’t been stellar. His career save percentage is .903, but with John Gibson out, this is his chance to step up and prove himself as a #1 goalie. I still like him as a player, but Anaheim won’t be great this year. Expect some fantastic games and a few rough ones. He’s fine as a second goalie, but if you’re in a categories league, he could be a tough hold.
Boston
Swayman is a true #1 and is being paid like it, though he hasn’t started the season strong. No one’s sure if he can handle 50-55 starts, but the Bruins have no other options. Korpisalo isn’t the answer. Swayman should give you good results long term, once he shakes off the offseason rust. His GSAA is only -0.48 so far, but Boston’s defense has been weak, with the 4th worst xGA in the league.
Buffalo
It’s an interesting situation here. Last year, Devon Levi didn’t seem ready for the NHL, but his first two starts this season have been solid with a 2.57 GAA and .919 save percentage. Meanwhile, UPL’s save percentage is much lower. Surprisingly, Buffalo’s defense has been strong in xGA, ranking 7th. They might split the starts 40-40 unless one goalie takes the lead.
Carolina
Carolina has long avoided paying big for goaltending, maybe it’s a Tulsky thing. This season, Freddy Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov will likely split starts. I like both as players, but owning them can be tough due to limited starts. Still, they’re great for streaming. Long term, Kochetkov is the one to watch.
Columbus
The Jackets currenty have the 3rd best xGA in the league. I can’t say I expect that trend to continue throughout the year. With that being said both Merzlikins and Tarasov have turned in some below average performances to start the year. There is part of me that thinks Tarasov could be ok as a streamer, but until I see some good results I can’t see wanting any part of either of these goalies.
Calgary
Is it too early to say Dustin Wolf is clearly better? Both he and Vladar have two starts on the year and Wolf’s GSAA is 3.30 and Vladar is -0.98. I wrote about Wolf last week. I just think it’s time for Calgary to roll with him for 50-55 starts and take the good with the bad. He’s your goalie of the future. Let the guy play. Vladar isn’t a 1B nevermind a 1A.
Chicago
I have a Blackhawks fan who’s in alot of my leagues. I asked him before the season started “Am I dumb to think Mrazek could be fine this year” He’s been “fine” so far, although I think it will still be harder to come by the wins because Chicago still has a long way to go, but if you’re in a points league I think he is more than fine as a G2 on your squad. Just understand there will probably be a few times this year he gets totally shelled. Soderblom was fine in his first start, but I have no reason to think Mrazek doesn’t get 55-60 starts unless Soderblom is just that dominant every time out.
Colorado
I’ve never been a believer in Georgiev. I think I’ve owned him once for one year across all my leagues; even then I traded him the next off-season. Nobody wants to get carried away and make any glossing declarations after three starts but he’s been brutal; and while I’ve wanted to buy Annunen as the minors goalie to hold, I just don’t think I can. If there was ever a time for him to earn more starts it’s now. For me though, I’m out on both of them.
Dallas
It looks like Vezina level Oettinger is back. He’s already 3-0 with sparkling numbers. If you were going to try to nab Oettinger in any league that time was probably last off-season as he was coming off a down year by his standards. I have him in four of my leagues, and wish I had him in more. I’m also ok with DeSmith as a streamer.
Detroit
It looks like the three-headed goalie situation is over, at least for now, with Ville Husso being sent to the AHL. It's hard to predict how the other two will perform. Lyon was about league average last season for the Wings, while Talbot had a strong bounce-back year with the Kings. As a Talbot owner in several leagues, I'd prefer a 60-40 or 55-45 timeshare in his favor, but at 37, the team might lean towards an even 50-50 split. However, if Talbot continues putting up good numbers, especially with the Wings in the playoff mix, he could get a longer leash.
Edmonton
I’ve never been a big believer in Stu Skinner. Results in Canada tend to get magnified, and while Skinner had a GSAA of 3.10 last season, which is decent, he seems league average to me. He’s fine as long as the team in front of him is performing well, but I’ve never felt the need to go after him in fantasy.
Florida
It’s interesting that Spencer Knight has already earned two starts, considering he was regarded as the top goalie prospect in the world a few years ago. He’s had some personal issues off the ice, but I believe his long-term talent is undeniable. Bobrovsky was fantastic last season but has struggled early this year. With Florida's short offseason, I’m sure they’ll want to ease up on his workload. I’d expect Bobrovsky to get about 52-53 starts if Knight can provide solid backup work.
Los Angeles
I’ve been a Kuemper fan for a long time. He didn’t perform well in Washington last year, but the Kings are stronger defensively, so I believe in Kuemper for at least this season. He’s not a long-term option for me, but I think he’s worth rostering. Let’s see how the Kings manage after a few more games without Drew Doughty, but I’m comfortable with Kuemper in the short term.
Minnesota
The situation in Minnesota is interesting. Filip Gustavsson was a hot mess last year, and Marc-Andre Fleury wasn’t much better, despite high fantasy expectations for Gus. He’s still only 26, so there’s plenty of time left. His first three starts this season have been fantastic, and I expect him to get a lot of starts—potentially 50 or more. MAF will likely play out his contract and start around 25 games. The team probably wants to give Wallstedt some starts since he’s been one of the best prospect goalies of the last few years, but I’d expect no more than 10-12 starts for him this season unless there’s an injury. Exactly how the Wild will balance all three goalies is unclear, but if Gus stays hot, he’s going to play, especially since Minnesota looks like a playoff bubble team.
Montreal
Sell Montembeault now if you can. Montreal has been a defensive mess. Last season, they ranked 3rd worst in the league for scoring chances allowed per 60, and they’re dead last so far this year. Their 5v5 xGA is 4.74—worse than last season’s worst team, San Jose, which had an xGA of 3.07. If you have someone in your league who believes in Montembeault, sell him before his next start. These numbers won’t hold up.
New Jersey
Goaltending sunk the Devils last year. Enter veteran Jacob Markstrom this season. His numbers have been solid in his first few starts, consistent with his performance last year. I believe the Devils will improve as a team this season, and Markstrom will play a key role in that. He’s a great short-term solution in net for the next year or two.
Nashville
Hold on to Saros. Don’t panic after a few bad games. Nashville was slightly better than league average defensively last season, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be just as good or even better this year. If someone in your league is panicking over Saros, go and grab him.
New York Islanders
Don’t worry about Sorokin either. Patrick Roy plays a more open style than his predecessor, which led to more goals against last season for Sorokin, but he’s still an elite talent. He should get around 55 starts. Varlamov is also a solid option for spot starts. You can’t go wrong with either goalie.
New York Rangers
Like the Islanders, the Rangers have the same two goalies as last season. Shesterkin is a dominant force based on talent alone, and he’ll continue to be this season. No changes here.
Ottawa
The Sens are another team aiming to take the next step toward becoming true playoff contenders. Trading for and then signing Linus Ullmark to an extension is a good move in that direction. He should help solidify the chaotic goalie situation they’ve had for the past few seasons. If the Sens stay in the playoff race, expect them to lean heavily on Ullmark, assuming he can handle the workload. I really want to believe in Sogaard as a potential NHL goalie, but he hasn’t shown enough yet to convince me. Maybe I like just like European goaltenders.
Philadelphia
By the numbers, the Flyers weren’t terrible defensively last season. However, they’ve been worse this year, currently ranking 8th worst in xGA. I just can’t get behind any of their goalies right now. This is pretty much an avoid-at-all-costs situation.
Pittsburgh
I’ve been a Jarry guy for a long time. A few years back, I owned him in a bunch of leagues. Since then, I’ve backed off as the team in front of him has deteriorated. Fans might want to blame him, but his underlying numbers weren’t bad last year—his GSAA was -0.78. He’s a guy you can live with if your team isn’t giving up the 5th worst xGA at even strength. Together, it’s not a great combo. Joel Blomqvist split starts with Jarry at the beginning of the year and has been fine, not great. He’s someone I like as a hold in a minors spot. If Blomqvist continues to perform, he could cut into Jarry’s starts.
San Jose
I expect San Jose to improve slightly this year. While I wouldn’t want to own Vanecek or Blackwood, I’d consider streaming them if they’re in a favorable situation. At the very least, they should rack up some save totals.
Seattle
This is a tough one. Seattle has just thrown money at Daccord, but they also threw money at Grubauer. Daccord had great results last year, outperforming Grubauer, but it’ll be difficult for the team to move on from Grubauer given the money they’ve invested in him. He still has two years left on his contract. I prefer Daccord over Grubauer, but this situation could get messy as the season progresses.
St. Louis
Binnington was solid last year, even though the Blues struggled. I’ve never been a big fan of Binnington, and I can’t quite pinpoint why—maybe he whines too much? He’s fine as a goaltender, but the Blues are in a tough division. He’ll likely get over 55 starts, making him a volume guy in a points league.
Tampa Bay
Vasilevskiy was a disaster last year, but I’m willing to chalk that to his hip issues, which kept him out at the beginning of the season. I think Tampa will slowly start to fade, but if Vasilevskiy returns to form, as he has in his first two starts this year, he could cover up some of the team’s weaknesses. Defensively, they were a bit above league average last year, and there have been personnel changes. I’m holding onto Vasilevskiy shares in several leagues, though many of those are legacy holds from having him for years. I still love the guy, but I’m wary of how much gas the team has left in the tank.
Toronto
Woll is injured, but Stolarz performed well last year, so he’s fine for now. Some prospect analysts are high on Hildeby, so he might be their next goalie of the future. I don’t hate either Woll or Stolarz as options, but playing for Toronto probably inflates their perceived fantasy value. I don’t see either of them running away with the job unless there’s a long-term injury. Even then, Hildeby might be capable of stepping in. Long term, I’d want some Hildeby shares, but for now, I’m fine with streaming Woll or Stolarz—though being Leafs goalies, they’re probably not available.
Utah
I’ve been an Ingram believer since his prospect days with Tampa and Nashville. The early returns this year haven’t been great, but I’d still take Ingram over Vejmelka. Last year’s full-season results back that up. I like Ingram as your goalie, but hopefully, your fantasy season doesn’t depend entirely on him.
Vancouver
I’ve never been sold on Silovs. Lankinen is fine, but not someone you want to rely on for 40 starts. This team desperately needs a healthy Demko back soon. Without him, they won’t be sunk, but they’ll just be treading water instead of thriving.
Vegas
Vegas was strong defensively last year with a 2.45 xGA at 5v5, the 10th best in the league. Adin Hill will get the bulk of the starts this season with Logan Thompson now in Washington. Part of me thinks Vegas believes it can win with just about anyone in net. Hill posted a 6.45 GSAA last year, and I’d expect similar results this season. Let’s see how he handles a workload north of 45 games.
Winnipeg
Hellebuyck is one of the top-three goalies in the world. He’s going to start 60+ games and deliver stellar results. He’s a high-end fantasy asset—just plug him in and forget about it.
Washington
Lastly, Washington—Charlie Lindgren was excellent last year, but I’m skeptical. I don’t trust him to replicate those results. It’s rare for goalies to suddenly turn it on after hitting 30. I think Logan Thompson is the heir apparent here, but he’ll have to win the job from Lindgren. That could be a long and frustrating process for fantasy owners. I’m high on Thompson in the long run, but I don’t care to own either of them right now.